Harley-Davidson not running hog wild

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) recently revised downward its 1Q 2007 and FY 2007 guidance due to a nearly month-long strike at its York, PA manufacturing plant. The strike was finally settled in late February but the damage has already been done. Instead of shipping 82,000-84,000 motorcycles as had been planned prior to the strike, Harley will ship 64,000-66,000 motorcycles, a loss in production of 18,000 units. That's a lot of disappointed HOG loyalists who will have to spend more time on the waiting list for a bike. Although Harley will increase production in coming months, its still predicts a shortfall of 14,000 units for FY 2007.

As a result of the loss in production, Harley management forecast only moderate growth, lower margins and 4-6% EPS. Harley predicts a return to double-digit EPS growth rate by 2008. Due to the recent labor troubles, the stock has taken a beating. Prior to the strike, the stock traded right around $75 per share. Harley-Davidson stock closed at $63.54, up $.24 on March, down almost 15% since the beginning of the year.